In an unexpected turn of events in the college football landscape, Tennessee’s newly acquired quarterback commit, Joey Aguilar, has seen his Heisman Trophy odds soar past those of former Volunteers quarterback Nico Iamaleava. This shift comes after both quarterbacks were involved in significant transfer moves this offseason. Iamaleava departed Tennessee for UCLA, while Aguilar, initially committed to UCLA, has now pledged his allegiance to the Volunteers.1
According to recent odds released by FanDuel Sportsbook, Aguilar’s chances of winning the coveted Heisman Trophy in 2025 stand at +4500.2 This is a notable improvement for Aguilar and places him ahead of Iamaleava, whose odds have dropped to +8000. This significant change in odds reflects the perceived situations and potential of both quarterbacks at their new programs.
Aguilar’s transfer to Tennessee fills a crucial void left by Iamaleava’s departure. Prior to Aguilar’s commitment, the Volunteers’ quarterback room consisted of two relatively inexperienced scholarship players.3 Aguilar brings a wealth of experience to Knoxville, having started 25 games over two seasons at Appalachian State. During his time with the Mountaineers, he amassed 6,760 passing yards and 56 touchdowns, setting single-season program records in 2024 with 3,757 passing yards and 33 touchdowns. This proven productivity has seemingly instilled confidence in oddsmakers regarding his potential impact in the Southeastern Conference (SEC).
Conversely, Iamaleava’s move to UCLA, while anticipated to provide an immediate upgrade for the Bruins’ quarterback position, has resulted in a decrease in his Heisman odds. Despite a promising 2024 season where he threw for 2,616 yards and 19 touchdowns, leading Tennessee to a 10-2 regular-season record and a College Football Playoff berth, the overall strength of the UCLA program is perceived to be lower than that of Tennessee. UCLA finished the 2024 season with a 5-7 record and struggled offensively, ranking low in several key statistical categories. The departure of key offensive personnel further contributes to the skepticism surrounding Iamaleava’s Heisman chances in his new environment.
The contrasting situations of the two quarterbacks highlight the significance of team context in the Heisman Trophy race. While individual talent is paramount, a player’s likelihood of contention is often closely tied to their team’s success and national visibility. Tennessee, coming off a strong season and possessing a track record of offensive firepower under Coach Josh Heupel, appears to offer Aguilar a more favorable platform to showcase his abilities on a national stage.
Furthermore, reports indicate a significant financial aspect to these quarterback moves. Tennessee is expected to pay Aguilar considerably less than Iamaleava’s previous lucrative NIL deal, providing the program with greater financial flexibility to address other roster needs through the transfer portal. This strategic financial maneuvering, coupled with the acquisition of an experienced quarterback, could further enhance Tennessee’s overall competitiveness in the upcoming season.
As the 2025 college football season approaches, the trajectories of Joey Aguilar and Nico Iamaleava will be closely watched. While early Heisman Trophy odds provide an initial glimpse into potential contenders, the ultimate outcome will depend on their individual performances and the success of their respective teams. The quarterback swap between Tennessee and UCLA has undoubtedly added an intriguing storyline to the upcoming season, with Aguilar now surprisingly positioned ahead of his predecessor in the early Heisman race.
